ACC Country

We’re officially at the half-way point of the ACC Season. According to most mock brackets, if the NCAA tournament started today, the ACC would only have 3 teams in, despite being the top rated conference in terms of RPI. In my opinion, that is ridiculous. North Carolina and Duke have all but punched their ticket into the big dance. I would like to take a look and see which other ACC teams have the best chances of going to the big dance, and who has to do the most work to get there.

Maryland – The Terrapins are currently 3rd in the conference standings, which is impressive after a horrible December. Everyone knows about the losses to Ohio and American University, but the Terps seemed to have bounced back from that, evident by their huge victory of North Carolina a couple of weeks ago. A 5-3 record is impressive, and at the rate they are playing, it would not surprise me to see Maryland upset Duke at Camerson next week. Look for Maryland’s to end the ACC season with an ACC record no worse than 10-6, and to finish in the top four of the ACC standings, earning a bye into the ACC Tournament. If this happens, Maryland will have a 20-11 record heading into the ACC Tournament – and Duke was a 6 seed last year with a 22-11 record. Maryland should make the tournament, barring a massive collapse.

Clemson – Clemson was the 3rd ACC team mentioned in most mock brackets, but they are nowhere near being a lock for the tournament. Certainly after starting 17-0 last year and being shipped off to the NIT, they would know this better than any one. They have an important ACC matchup tonight agaisnt Virginia and a win would tie them with Maryland for 3rd in the conference with a 5-3 record. A loss, however, would drop them to 4-4 and into a big mess in the middle of the conference. Clemson should make the tournament, and should be one of the top 4 teams in the conference, but Clemson has underachieved before. If Oliver Prunell wants to change some minds, beating Virginia tonight would be a start; ending “The Streak” on Sunday certainly would not hurt.

Virginia Tech – Seth Greenberg’s team was picked to finish near the bottom of the ACC this year after losing nearly everyone. Someone forgot to tell these guys and the Hokies currently are at 5-4 in the ACC. However, their record is 14-9, which isn’t great. They’ve had some bad losses and there are really no impressive wins. What is impressive is that they are doing well in ACC play for the most part. They have yet to play North Carolina, but to manage a winning record through 9 games is impressive. With only 7 conference games left, they could get to .500 in the league. As for a NCAA tournament bid? I wouldn’t count on it, but if they are impressive during the ACC tournament and finish with a 10-6 ACC regular season record, it could happen. Crazier things have happened.

N. C. State – This team has all of the tools to make a huge run during the second half of ACC play. Like Maryland, they have some puzzling and, quiet frankly, bad out of conference losses (New Orleans, East Carolina), but also like Maryland, they have shown flashes of brilliance at times. Javi Gonzales has really become a dependable option at point guard for the Wolf Pack. If he can continue to play at a high level, with Ben McCauley, JJ Hickson, Courtney Fells and Gavin Grant doing their part, this State team can surprise people. Get Brandon Costner back into the same form that he was in last year and they will make the tournament. They’ll have more than the 4 losses that Grant predicted at the beginning of the year, but an NCAA Tournament bid is in reach.

Georgia Tech - This Yellow Jacket team is barely over .500 (11-10). They are 4-4 in the ACC, which is a surprise. They’ve played contending teams hard and well (Kansas and North Carolina) but have faltered against unimpressive competition (UNC-G and Georgia State). I think they have a shot to get to the tournament, but they must finish with a 10-6 conference record and have a VERY impressive ACC tournament run. Even then, it may be a long shot.

As it pertains to Wake Forest, Boston College, and Florida State, they certainly have the talent, but it looks like they will fall short of their goal. Miami has to be considered a disappointment after started so well, they have fallen to 2-6 in the ACC after a loss at home against Florida State. Virginia looks to take the Georgia Tech circa 96-97 route, going from first to worst in two years. They are currently trailing at halftime and without J.R. Reynolds and Jason Cain, Sean Singletary has to do the bulk of the work and it’s not resulting in wins.

If I was to make a prediction today, I would say that North Carolina, Duke, Maryland, Clemson, and N.C. State will make the tournament. Both Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech have a lot of work to do, but with impressive runs during this month, plus a good ACC tournament run, one or both could end up in the tournament.